Another busy week has passed, and the main trend of the year remains intact. Equities are still doing well now that interest rate cuts by central banks are firmly priced in for 2024.

The US dollar rose slightly again but is now encountering resistance. We got mixed economic data, notably a stronger-than-expected GDP but a marginally weaker Core PCE. Last week, the DXY index rose 0.2% and closed at 103,474.

Disappointing economic data from the eurozone and a dovish ECB still hamper the euro. As a result, the single currency fell marginally against most majors last week.

Sterling had a marginally positive day, following some better-than-expected PMI figures, but all eyes are on the Bank of England’s interest rate decision next week.

The rally helped commodity currencies in oil, but the dollar’s strength kept them in check. Last week, AUD, NZD and CAD fell marginally, but NOK rose 0.7%. Elsewhere in FX, JPY remained flat, and CHF rose 0.6%.

Oil is still very volatile, with significant weekly swings. Last week, WTI rose more than 6% and closed at $78.12.

Precious metals are still trading sideways and see no significant action. Gold remains relatively close to its ATHs in USD terms and is likely to take it higher in its next leg. Last week, precious metals were relatively subdued, with gold falling 0.5% to $2,018 and silver rising 0.6% and closing at $22.80.

Equities remain bullish, with the path of least resistance still upwards. Last week, the S&P500 index rose 0.8% to 4886, and the DAX rose 2.5% to 16961 points.

Bonds finally had a quiet week, with few significant moves. Last week, the 10-year UST yield rose 1 bp to 4.14%, and the 10-year Bund remained more or less flat at 134.28.

Finally, cryptocurrencies still show weakness following the adoption of the Bitcoin ETF. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is flat at $41,700 and Ethereum is 8.5% lower at $2,270.

The week ahead:

Another week full of data awaits us and markets are likely to remain volatile. Regarding data, we have interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and US Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday. We should also not forget that we also have the announcement of the US Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding; will there finally be a catalyst for a risk-off, or will equities push higher?

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